The Study on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation of change biodiversity climate English, a work sponsored by the Ministry of Environment and coordinated by researchers at the University of Extremadura CSIC, explores how climate change will affect the Iberian flora and fauna from 2040 and until 2100 in terms of development scenarios and mitigation of pollution considered conservative by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC). This organization provides scientific data upon which the politicians have yet to forge an international agreement to halt global warming.
Their work covers hundreds of species and estimate the distribution areas of each into the next century, during which the climate models show that rainfall will be scarce and temperatures high, especially in the southwest of the peninsula.
In the case of vertebrates, of the 317 species studied, 300 will suffer "significant decline" in their range due to rising temperatures, according to the work, coordinated by Miguel Araújo, a researcher at the CSIC .
The worst part is carried by amphibians, much more vulnerable to moisture loss and increased as temperature and movement capability is more limited. Up to 85% of these species will be possible territories undermined by at least 30% and in some cases by more than half between 2070 and 2100.
More than half of the reptiles, birds and mammals of Spain also will reduce its areas of expansion in at least 30% due to warming.
The status of the flora is not much better. Of the 220 species studied, "nearly all" will see a reduction in the area climatically favorable to thrive, according to this part of the work, coordinated by Angel Felicísimo, a researcher at the University of Extremadura. 50% of listed species "evolves into a critical situation, with very high risk of extinction last half century," the job. The situation is particularly committed to species such as oak Extremadura, Galicia carballo oak or pinsapo of the Sierra de Grazalema, Andalusia.
Both legs of the study (flora and fauna), which has taken two years to include a specific tab for each species in which detailed the current situation and forecasts of where they can live between 2040 and 2070 and between 2070 and 2100. Many can be seen that the southwest of the peninsula is blank, ie uninhabitable.
In many cases, both in animals and plants, climate models show a general exodus to the north as temperatures rise in the southern half the country, especially in the Southwest and during the summer months. Caution
Despite its scientific backing, jobs are subject to uncertainty. The models used to forecast weather conditions more than 30 years ahead of current data are quite variable and can result in far more flattering and much more catastrophic. Depending on the local model used, the projections of each potential habitat vary considerably.
solutions to avoid this future are increasingly dramatic. Begin, according to research, to preserve species in situ, designating new protected areas, providing corridors for movement or preventing forests from splitting in half sensitive.
In the most desperate cases, where natural ecosystems can no longer sustain life for some species, the solution will be raising them in captivity and seed banks, ie, huge libraries with seeds of plants that exist today, but may be gone in 30 years.
A peninsula increasingly warm
6 º temperature rise
is the maximum rise of temperatures expected in Spain between 2071 and 2100, according to CLIVAR, a study on the impacts of climate change funded by the UN.
6,200 million euros
The cost of climate change may be of 6,200 million euros a year by 2020 if EU countries do not take measures to adapt.
x1000 species loss
The loss of plant and animal life on Earth is 1,000 times the natural rate, according to the UN.
Species go see
Brown Bear
In the Iberian Peninsula survived by two populations: the Pyrenees and the Cantabrian. The temperature range of their distribution in the peninsula ranges from -14.8 ° C and 27.8 ° C. Models project contractions in the potential distribution of the species between 12% and 13% in 2041-2070.
Peregrine
is present in almost all the peninsula, but is less abundant in the Southwest. Temperatures in their range varies from -9.8 ° C and 36.3 ° C. The modelosproyectan contractions in their distribution between 43% and 49% in 2041-2070, especially in the southwest.
Common Toad
is widely distributed in Europe and is present in almost all the Iberian Peninsula. The models projected contraction in the current potential distribution of the species between 49% and 54% in 2041-2070. The maps show large areas of the south are unfit for the amphibian.
common Fir
appears only in the Pyrenees, which mark the limit of expansion in southern Europe. He lives in woods next to you between 900 and 2,100 meters. Models predict a significant reduction of the final species century. The maintenance and recovery capacity is scarce.
Via: Public
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